J&K Rajya Sabha elections: BJP seeking 3 MLAs' abstaining to engineer Azad's defeat

 

Ahmed Ali Fayyaz

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JAMMU, Feb 4: With just two days left to the February 7th election on the four Rajya Sabha seats in Jammu and Kashmir, BJP is working hard to ensure the Congress candidate Ghulam Nabi Azad's defeat, leading to the victory of all four candidates of the BJP-PDP alliance.

Authintmail learned from well-placed political sources on Wednesday that rather than seeking vote from the independent members, the BJP strategists were attempting abstaining of three particular MLAs from the voting. Surprisingly and significantly, one of the three legislators is a Congress MLA from North Kashmir who is believed to have secretly met Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi over a month back. Sources disclosed that the three MLAs---one each from Kupwara, Bandipore and Budgam districts---were being persuaded by the top BJP leadership through certain contacts to abstain from the voting.

One of the three MLAs, according to the sources, had made it clear to the BJP that he would have no hesitation to cast his vote openly in favour of the BJP candidate even if it leads to his disqualification under the State's anti-defection law. However, he was later advised that instead of risking his membership he should simply remain absent on account of being "ill".

If the three MLAs do not turn up for voting on Saturday, total votes of the Congress-NC combine would reduce to 27 (NC 15 + Congress 11 + CPM 01 = 27) against the BJP-PDP alliance's 57 (BJP 25 + independent MLA from Udhampur and BJP rebel Pawan Gupta + Peoples Conference 02 + PDP 28 + Independent MLA from Zanskar Aga Baqir).

The BJP-PDP combine would poll all 57 votes in favour of the alliance candidate----PDP's Mir Fayaz Ahmad---on the first single seat notified vide notification number 101. The Congress-NC alliance candidate---NC's Sajjad Ahmad Kichloo---would bag total of 27 votes.

Similarly, on the second single seat notified vide notification number 102, the BJP-PDP alliance would poll all 57 votes for the coalition candidate---BJP's Shamsher Singh Manhas---while as the Congress-NC candidate---NC's Nasir Aslam Wani---would get total of 27 seats. Thus both these straight contest seats would go to the BJP-PDP alliance, one each to BJP and PDP.

Crucial contest

As regards the crucial contest on the two seats notified vide notification number 103, the BJP-PDP alliance would have to reserve 29 votes for the PDP candidate Nazir Ahmad Laway (PDP's 28 plus Aga Baqir) and 28 votes for BJP's Chander Mohan Sharma (BJP's 25 + PC's 02 + Pawan Gupta). These two candidates (PDP's Nazir Ahmad Laway and BJP's Chander Mohan Sharma) would be declared as winners for getting 29 and 28 votes respectively.

If this tactic runs smoothly, Mr Azad would poll maximum of 27 votes and lose.

0ut of the seven independent candidates, PC's two MLAs of Handwara (Sajjad Gani Lone) and Kupwara Bashir Ahmad Dar) besides the BJP rebel and MLA of Udhampur (Pawan Gupta) are now clearly on the BJP side and the Zanskar MLA (Aga Baqir) has lately joined the PDP, the CPM MLA Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami has already declared his support to Mr Azad.

Authintmail contacted both of the still non-aligned MLAs, namely Hakeem Mohammad Yasin (MLA Khansahib) and Engineer Sheikh Abdul Rashid (MLA Langet) to learn about their decision.

"I have not yet taken any decision (whether to vote for the BJP-PDP candidates or the Congress-NC candidates or to abstain). But rest assured that we three (Mr Yasin, Mr Tarigami and Mr Rashid) will take a collective decision by Friday", Mr Yasin said.

When reached on phone, on his way from Srinagar to Jammu, Mr Rashid admitted he was part of a front with Mr Yasin and Mr Tarigami but the CPM leader, he pointed out, had already announced his support to the Congress-NC candidate Mr Azad. He said that this forced him to issue a statement that he would not support the Congress or the BJP candidates. "I have taken a hard stand against the BJP on many ideological issues and also against the Congress over Afzal Guru's execution. I will have to apply my mind and conscience before taking the final decision", Mr Rashid said.

However, the situation will change in case Mr Yasin goes with Mr Tarigami to the Congress candidate. In that case, Mr Azad and Mr Sharma would get 28 each and the tie would have to be broken by draw of lots. But if the unnamed Congress MLA does not abstain and Mr Tarigami along with Mr Yasin vote for Congress, Mr Azad and Mr Laway would get 29 each and become winners on seat number 3 and 4. That would mean two seats to PDP and one each to BJP and Congress. "Since there are high stakes, a lot would happen behind the curtain. There are already rumours that Rs 5 crore was being offered to each of the two or three candidates whose vote could tilt the balance", said a political source.

Congress has high stakes on Mr Azad's victory as after the defeat of most of its leaders in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, he is the party's face in the Parliament and Leader of Opposition, holding the status of a union Cabinet Minister, in Rajya Sabha. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Mr Azad was defeated on Udhampur-Doda seat by BJP's debutant Dr Jitendra Singh who was subsequently inducted as Minister of State in the Prime Minister's Office. 

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